黑天鵝

前幾年金融海嘯期間曾經紅過一個概念叫「黑天鵝」。九流財經演員動輒將罕有事物稱之為「黑天鵝」去扮高深，雖然十居其九連翻譯本都未讀過，這班演員的觀眾又十居其九被兇到。唔知就嚇死，知就笑死。

「黑天鵝」要挑戰的，是將傳統統計學模型應用在金融業，尤其是股票。理由是金融業之複雜，無人可知（不是無人知，而是不可知）。要找出在金融市場背後的模型，往往先要假設模型種類（一般是 Gaussian) 然後再找變數 (例如 mean, standard deviation）。這方法學令研究陷入循環論證。證明命題時要先假設命題。是以金融業中所有機會率、風險管理都是狗噏。作者 Taleb 甚至認為大部份當代經濟學都是亂用統計學，點名批評好幾位諾貝爾奬得主。而這些經濟理論，不分流派，都只能在「如無意外」下解釋每次金融市場，但意外頻頻發生，而且那幾日意外的歷史影響比其餘千萬日的「正常」狀態不相伯仲。Taleb 指出，問題不單是經濟學馬後砲，問題在於人類構造接受不到歷史不可預測，不可估計，總想有宏觀和貎似客觀的理由去解釋歷史進程。Taleb 舉例指二戰初期時幾乎無人自覺身處世界大戰之中，但今日歷史則往往視納粹興起為必然，日德意軸心國結盟則是大勢多趨，諸多理由。

大規模七一上街由零三開始，已經第十二年。你知我知全香港人知中共知，齋行嗌口號對政府構成的壓力近乎零。否則梁振英兩年前已經下台，現在已經還政於民有真普選。我們都知道，如無意外，零三反廿三條的歷史不會重覆，港共政府早有防備。我們甚至可以預期，如無意外，包圍立法會、佔領政總的結果只會一如以往，以政權的鷹犬爪牙清場作結，而不是有真普選，否則高鐵東北撥款就不曾通過。

呀，如 無 意 外！一 如 以 往！如無意外，1911年新軍兵變會一如以往被鎮壓，革命成功不會在辛亥年。如無意外，奧匈帝國皇子班塞Q 亦照理一如以往不會被刺客埋身，歐洲的零星戰火未必會成為世界大戰，1919年五月四日在北京就未必會有學生運動。如無意外，今日阿爾巴尼亞應該會輸俾德國零比二。如無意外，但有誰可以保證無意外？人越多變數越大，波是圓的。

香港如何民怨沸騰，民不聊生，政府如何腐敗，大陸如何殖民香港，在地的香港人都比我清楚。幾十萬人上街，和平集會包圍政府，足以制憲建國，歷史例子比比皆是。變局的遠因近因都在，只差導火線。如無意外，今日遊行完還是和平散去，明早佔領政總完還是和平散場，在晴朗的一天出發。和以前一樣，今後亦會陸續有零星衝突，如無意外，都是政治拘補了事。如果出現最不可思議的屎忽撞棍局面呢？無人可知。即使全場波幾乎掂不到波皮，但如果守得住的話，缺口一個就夠。

五十年後一百年後回望今日，香港的歷史過程都會看似必然，大勢所趨。究竟是 A 餐無可避免地中港融合為「香圳」，北京北角同一制？還是 B 餐大勢所趨地走向本屬香港的真正自治，中共被迫還政於民？大概要看香港人有幾努力在歷史留聲，令最不可思議的偶然化為必然。

寫於2014年6月30日

上載於2015年6月30日

Soul Searching on Tiananmen

25 years ago, protests against corruption and inflation quickly escalated into a democratic movement. When the movement received international attention, it gained widespread support from the apolitical populace in the British colony of Hong Kong, 5 years after its fate to be handed over to China was sealed. All of a sudden, Hongkongers saw hope for a democratic Beijing government after the handover in 1997. While very few joined the Beijing movement in person, money and resource donations poured in.

The massacre on June 4th crushed all hope for peaceful transitions to democracy, but many Hongkongers felt that they are on the same boat as the mainlanders. A weird contradicting identity has formed: patriotic yet rebellious. While being increasingly anti-Communist, many Hongkongers considered themselves to be patriotic to a virtual, cultural and unified China, covering both China proper, Tibet, East Turkestan, Mongolia, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao and all territories claimed by governments on both sides of the Straits. By attending the annual religious vigil on the June 4th massacre, many vigil attendees consider themselves the conscience of China.

25 years passed in a blink of an eye. The once fragile regime has become the world’s second largest economy, while Hong Kong has been annexed to China for so long that many Hongkongers genuinely believe Hong Kong has no future other than being a city in the all-powerful China. The annual vigil has increasingly become a feel-good ritual. The slogans “End the One-Party Dictatorship”, “Develop a Democratic China” are so encouraging, but at the same time, powerless as all participants know. After the vigil ends with the hosts saying “Come back next year!”, the society is back to normal.

I, myself, was one of them, and it took a lot of soul searching to figure out my psychology. Was I self glorifying myself? Or was I mourning for the loss of a hypothetical democratic Communist government that had never existed? Were the elderlies guilty about the perished students who they thought they were paying as frontline soldiers against the authoritarian regime? It’s easy to deny all these and resort to universal value of humanity, but deep down, I know this massacre is different from other tragedies, to me and other Hongkongers.

Written on June 4, 2014
Uploaded on May 29, 2016